Who’s Going to Win Top 2025 Grammy Awards? Our Fearless Predictions

Nominees: André 3000’s New Blue Sun, Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet, Charli XCX’s BRAT, Jacob Collier’s Djesse Vol. 4, Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft, Chappell Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department

Analysis: All of these contenders were nominated in their “genre album” categories except for Collier’s album, which was passed over for a nod for best pop vocal album. That’s not a good sign: No album has won album of the year without at least being nominated in its genre album category since the introduction of genre album categories in the mid-1990s.

Cowboy Carter, which is nominated for best country album, would be the first country album to win album of the year since Kacey Musgraves’ Golden Hour six years ago. BRAT, nominated for best dance/electronic album, would be the first album from that genre to win album of the year since Daft Punk’s Random Access Memories in 2014. New Blue Sun, nominated for best alternative jazz album, would be the first jazz album to win album of the year since Herbie Hancock’s River: The Joni Letters in 2008.

Swift has won four times in this category. She won most recently just last year for Midnights. If she wins again, she’ll become the first five-time winner in this category and just the third act in Grammy history to win back-to-back awards in this category, following Frank Sinatra (1966-67) and Stevie Wonder (1974-75).

Eilish and André 3000 have each won once in this category, André 3000 as a member of OutKast. If he wins, he’ll become the third former member of a group or duo to win for a solo debut album, following George Michael (Faith, 1989) and Lauryn Hill (The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill, 1999).

Roan would be the first artist to win for their first studio album since Billie Eilish won five years ago for When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?

Cowboy Carter features a large and diverse cast of featured artists, including pop legends Paul McCartney and Stevie Wonder and country greats Willie Nelson and Dolly Parton. Other artists featured on the album include Miley Cyrus, Post Malone, Shaboozey, Jon Batiste, Gary Clark Jr., The-Dream, Rhiannon Giddens, Pharrell, Nile Rodgers and Raphael Saadiq. If those artists, and people in their camps, vote for Cowboy Carter, that could help make the difference in a close race.

On Christmas Day, midway through the final-round voting period (Dec. 12-Jan. 3), Bey headlined the halftime show at a Texans-Ravens NFL game in her hometown of Houston, Texas. This marked the first time she had performed songs from Cowboy Carter in front of a live audience. Millions watched the performance live on Netflix and millions more streamed it afterwards.

This is the second time Swift and Beyoncé have gone head-to-head in this category. In 2010, Swift’s Fearless beat Bey’s I Am…Sasha Fierce. For the record, Bey’s subsequent losses in this category were to Beck, Adele and Harry Styles.

Few consider Cowboy Carter to be Beyoncé’s best album, but she’s overdue for a win in this category. Many would howl if Swift won a record-extending fifth award in this category before Beyoncé won her first. It would probably be in Swift’s best interest to lose this year and to be seen graciously applauding and cheering for Beyoncé. Eight years ago, Adele probably would have been better just off winning record and song of the year for “Hello” (as she did) and losing album of the year to Beyoncé’s Lemonade. When she swept all three awards for the second time, while Bey was passed over for album of the year for the third time, it was an uncomfortable moment – though Adele’s graciousness and generosity in that moment was heartening to see.

If Swift loses on Feb. 2, she just might have dodged a bullet. Would a record-extending fifth win be worth the aggravation of a thousand pieces saying “Beyoncé was robbed – again”?

Prediction: Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter

Nominees: The Beatles’ “Now and Then,” Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold ’Em,” Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso,” Charli XCX’s “360,” Billie Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather,” Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us,” Chappell Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!,” Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone’s “Fortnight.”

Analysis: Only one of these acts, Eilish, has ever won in this category. She has won twice, for “Bad Guy” and “Everything I Wanted.” If she wins again, she’ll tie Paul Simon and Bruno Mars as the only three-time winners in the history of the category. (And she’d be the only one of the three who did it with three solo recordings.)

“Fortnight” was passed over for a nomination for best pop duo/group performance. That doesn’t doom its chances here, but it’s not a good sign.

The Beatles have never won in this category, despite nominations for “I Want to Hold Your Hand,” “Yesterday,” “Hey Jude” and “Let It Be,” four of their top-tier classics. Few would put “Now and Then” in league with those all-timers, but the band’s name retains its magic more than 60 years after Beatlemania. Grammy voters rarely pass up the opportunity to vote for the beloved band. Eight years ago, The Beatles: Eight Days a Week – The Touring Years beat Beyoncé’s Lemonade for best music film.

Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr are the only members of The Beatles who are nominated for “Now and Then.” (Because John Lennon and George Harrison have each been dead for more than five years, they don’t meet the Grammy test for “new recordings” – “material that has been recorded within five years of the release date”). If “Now and Then” wins, McCartney will complete his sweep of the Big Four awards, though it will have taken him longer to do so than any other act in Grammy history. He won best new artist in 1965 (with The Beatles), song of the year in 1967 for “Michelle” (in tandem with Lennon) and album of the year in 1968 for The Beatles’ landmark Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band.

Beyoncé has received a record nine nominations in this category without ever winning, but this isn’t the award she has her sights set on.

Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” has “Grammy” written all over it. It is a superb-sounding single, even if you don’t listen to the storyline about a lesbian who is calling out her lover for not being true to herself. This song proves that a very specific situation can be universally relatable if it’s presented with honesty and authenticity.

Lamar’s “Not Like Us” is also a superb-sounding single, even if you don’t know a thing about the bitter Lamar/Drake feud that sparked it. It would be only the second hip-hop single to win in this category, following Childish Gambino’s “This Is America.” Lamar’s hit doesn’t have the socio-political significance that Gambino’s hit had, but it may be even catchier and more broadly appealing. Also, there are six female solo artists in the category, most of them with a pop bent. They may split some votes, which would work toward Lamar’s advantage.

Prediction: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”

Nominees: “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (Sean Cook, Shaboozey, Nevin Sastry), “Birds of a Feather” (Billie Eilish & Finneas), “Die With a Smile” (D’Mile, James Fauntleroy, Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars, Andrew Watt), “Fortnight” (Jack Antonoff, Post Malone, Taylor Swift), “Good Luck, Babe!” (Chappell Roan, Daniel Nigro, Justin Tranter), “Not Like Us” (Kendrick Lamar), “Please Please Please,” (Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff, Sabrina Carpenter), “Texas Hold ’Em” (Brian Bates, Beyoncé, Atia Boggs, Elizabeth Lowell Boland, Megan Bülow, Nate Ferraro, Raphael Saadiq).

Analysis: Since the nominations were first announced on Nov. 8, the Grammys added a seventh writer (Atia Boggs) to the credits for “Texas Hold ’Em” and removed three writers (Jerrell Jones, Joe Kent and Mark Williams) from “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” The latter three were the writers of J-Kwon’s 2004 hit “Tipsy,” which was interpolated in Shaboozey’s hit. Songs with interpolations and samples are allowed in the category, but the writers of the interpolated or sampled songs are not awarded nominations. (If the song wins, they get a certificate, not a trophy.)

Eilish & Finneas, D’Mile and Mars are all two-time winners in this category. Eilish & Finneas won for “Bad Guy” and “What Was I Made For?”; D’Mile for “I Can’t Breathe” and “Leave the Door Open”; Mars for “That’s What I Like” and “Leave the Door Open.” If any of them wins this year, they’ll become the first three-time winners in the history of the category.

Beyoncé won in 2010 for co-writing “Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It).” If she wins, she’ll become the third woman to win twice in the category, following Adele and Eilish.

Swift has received eight nominations in this category, more than anyone else in Grammy history, yet she has yet to win in this category. That’s strange because many consider songwriting to be her chief strength. But her failure to win in this category (yet) is considered an oddity more than an injustice (unlike Bey’s album of the year shutout).

“A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and “Texas Hold ’Em” are both nominated for best country song. Either would be the first country song to win song of the year since Lady A’s “Need You Now” 14 years ago. “Not Like Us” is nominated for best rap song. It’s vying to become the second hip-hop song to win in this category, following Childish Gambino’s “This Is America.”

If Eilish and Finneas win, in addition to becoming the first three-time winners in the history of the category, they’ll become just the second songwriters to win back-to-back awards in this category, following D’Mile. They are highly respected as songwriters. Early last year, at ages 22 and 26, respectively, they won their second Oscars for best original song.

Prediction: Billie Eilish & Finneas

Nominees: Benson Boone, Sabrina Carpenter, Doechii, Khruangbin, RAYE, Chappell Roan, Shaboozey, Teddy Swims

Analysis: If Carpenter, Doechii, RAYE or Chappell Roan wins, this will be the eighth consecutive year that a female solo artist has won in this category. That would constitute the longest winning streak by women artists in the history of the category, topping the seven-year winning streak which extended from 1997 to 2003.

Boone, Shaboozey or Swims would be the first male solo artist to win in this category since Chance the Rapper eight years ago. Khruangbin would the first group or duo to win since Macklemore & Ryan Lewis 11 years ago.

Carpenter and Roan each have six nominations this year. Shaboozey has five; Doechii and RAYE each have three. That gives them a leg up on Boone, Khruangbin and Swims, each of whom just have just one nomination.

Most of these acts would be credible winners, but it probably comes down to Carpenter and Roan, who are nominated in each of the “Big Four” categories. Both are wonderful pop artists who brightened pop playlists in 2024, but Roan is generally seen as more creative and innovative.

Prediction: Chappell Roan

Nominees: Alissia, Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II, Ian Fitchuk, Mustard, Daniel Nigro

Analysis: So, where’s Jack Antonoff? Antonoff had won in this category the last three years in a row. He was vying to become the first person in Grammy history to win here four years running. But he wasn’t even nominated — not because the quality of his work fell off: He’s the only producer with credits on two album of the year nominees this year. It appears that the members of the National Craft Nominating Committee, which selected the five nominees, just decided that Antonoff has been rewarded enough in this category, at least for now.

Let’s take a moment to tell you how the nominees are determined in this category, because it’s different than the Big Four.

The 67th Grammy Awards Rules & Guidelines handbook says “the first round of voting is in the hands of the general voting membership via the first ballot. The second round of voting, however, takes place in a national craft nominating committee. The top 30 selections from the general voting membership…appear on the ballot for the national craft nominating committees, made up of 25-35 voting members representing all the chapters, to vote by confidential ballot to select the five nominations.”

We have no way of knowing if Antonoff ranked in the top five on the first round of voting (which was determined by rank-and-file voters), but it seems likely. It appears that this committee likely overruled rank-and-file voters and replaced Antonoff. Are the members of this committee so much wiser and better-informed than rank-and-file Grammy voters to justify this undemocratic approach? If the academy trusts rank-and-file Grammy voters with picking the final nominees in each of the Big Four categories, why doesn’t it trust them here or in the Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical category? Just asking.

Alissia would be the first woman ever to win in this category, either on her own or with a collaborator. But none of her sample credits listed on the nominations list were nominated in marquee categories.

Nigro is nominated for album, record and song of the year for his work with Chappell Roan. Mustard is nominated for record of the year for co-producing Lamar’s “Not Like Us.” D’Mile co-wrote and co-produced Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars’ “Die With a Smile,” which was passed over for a record of the year nod but is nominated for song of the year.

I think it comes down to Mustard and Nigro. I’ll go with Nigro, on the strength of his five total nominations this year, more than any of the other contenders here.

Prediction: Daniel Nigro

Nominees: Jessi Alexander, Amy Allen, Edgar Barrera, Jessie Jo Dillon, RAYE

Analysis: Male songwriters (Tobias Jesso Jr. and Theron Thomas) won in the first two years this award was presented, but with women taking four of the five nominations this year, that may well change this year.

This is the second year in a row that Barrera and Dillon were nominated here. It’s the second time in three years that Allen has been among the nominees.

Allen is the only nominee here who is also up for song of the year, for co-writing Sabrina Carpenter’s “Please Please Please.” She’s also nominated for best song written for visual media for co-writing *NSYNC’s “Better Place” from Trolls Band Together. In that category, she’s competing with Alexander, who co-wrote the Luke Combs hit “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters: The Album.

The 67th Grammy Awards Rules & Guidelines handbook says the nominees in this category are chosen by a national committee “comprised of diverse and ‘highly relevant’ songwriters across all genres and areas of the craft. The nominating committee meets once. They are given a list of the voters’ top 30 selections from the first-round voting in alphabetical order by songwriter. The committee is provided the submitted material, both recordings and lyrics, from the songwriters on this list, each committee member votes by individual confidential ballot to determine the final nominees.”

Prediction: Amy Allen